Research

Job Market Paper

Rigging the Scores: Corruption through Scoring Rule Manipulation in Public Procurement Auctions

Public procurement is highly susceptible to corruption, especially in developing countries. Although open auctions are widely adopted to curb it, I document that corruption remains prevalent even within this procurement format. Procurement officers can collaborate with firms to manipulate scoring rules, ensuring predetermined winners, while corrupt firms submit non-competitive bids to meet minimum bidder requirements. Using extensive data from Chinese public procurement auctions, I introduce model-driven statistical tools to detect such corruption, identifying a corruption rate of 65%. A procurement expert audit survey confirms the tools' reliability, with a 91% probability that experts recognize suspicious scoring rules when flagged. Firm-level analysis reveals that local, state-owned, and less productive firms are favored in corrupt auctions. Lastly, I explore policy implications. Analysis of the anti-corruption campaign suggests that general investigations may be insufficient to address deeply ingrained corrupt practices. Using counterfactuals based on an estimated structural model, I find that implementing anonymous call-for-tender evaluations could improve social welfare by 10% by eliminating suspicious rules and encouraging broader participation.

Selected Publications

Economics Journal Publications

  • Chen, Q., Huang, Q., Liu, C., & Wang, P. Career incentives of local leaders and crisis response: A case study of COVID-19 lockdowns in China. European Journal of Political Economy(2022), 102180. link

  • Guo, Y., Song, Y., & Chen, Q. Impacts of education policies on intergenerational education mobility in China. China Economic Review(2019), 55, 124-142. link

  • Chen, Q., S. Zheng, & Z. Wang. Scale of Land, Enrollment of Cooperatives and Adoption of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Evidence from Jilin (in Chinese). Journal of Agrotechnical 农业技术经济(2018), 6, 92-105. link

Lawrence Lab Publications

  • Jin, L., Lazar, A., Brown, C., Chen, Q., Sim, A., Wu, K., Ravulaparthy S., Garikapati V., and Spurlock, C. A. What Makes You Hold on to That Old Car? Joint Insights From Machine Learning and Multinomial Logit on Vehicle-Level Transaction Decisions. Frontiers in Future Transportation 3, (2022). link

  • Yang, H.-C., Jin, L., Lazar, A., Todd-Blick, A., Sim, A., Wu, K., Chen, Q., Spurlock, C.A. Gender Gaps in Mode Usage, Vehicle Ownership, and Spatial Mobility When Entering Parenthood: A Life Course Perspective. Systems11, 314, (2023). link

Working Paper

  • Unheard Whistleblowers: Detecting Corruption and Exploring the Scarcity of Complaints in Public Procurement Auctions [draft upon request]
  • Summary: The complaint system provides a means for participants to report potential corruption and collusion in public procurement auctions. However, the frequency of such complaint cases is typically low. In this study, I gathered a dataset of complaints from China's public procurement system and applied the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to analyze close-game auctions. My findings indicate that bidders who won by a small margin tended to submit bids that were, on average, 5% higher than those of the losing bidders, who were consequently more inclined to lodge complaints. Notably, I found that at least 20% of the auctions in the complaint dataset were corrupt. When extending this methodology to the entire public procurement auction dataset, it appeared that 9% of the auctions in close-game scenarios were corrupt. The observed discontinuity disappeared following anti-corruption investigations, thereby validating the methodology. Additionally, I developed a model to investigate the decision-making process behind the lodging of complaints, with a specific focus on those bidders who lost by a narrow margin. In a counterfactual analysis, I noted that the 'garbling game' associated with investigations could potentially lead to an increase in complaints.

  • Imperfect Land Market, Migration Cost, and Resources Reallocation: Evidence from China. with Wei Lin, and Shaoda Wang [draft upon request]
  • Summary: This paper investigates how initial land endowments affect short/long-term household labor allocation when land and labor markets are incomplete.

  • High-Speed Railway and Local Firm Dynamics: Evidence from China [draft upon request]
  • Summary: The upgrade of inter-regional transport from railways to high-speed railways can significantly reduce people's traveling time. This paper exploits the construction of China’s High-Speed Railway Network and detailed firm registration data to answer the question: how does the HSR network influence local economic structure and dynamics through firm entry and exit in different sectors.

    Work in Progress

    • Public Procurement Contracts and Supply Chain, with Wei Lin and Ming Li [Analysis Stage]

    • Is Randomization a Good Way to Combat Corruption and Improve Public Procurement Outcomes? [Data Collecting Stage]

    • Liquidity Constraints, Land Use Externalities, and Environmental Degradation: Evidence from China [Analysis Stage]

    Other Writings

    • Teachers' Cognitive Ability and Students' Performance: Evidence from Rural Gansu in China. with Scott Rozelle and Huan Wang